Surfing Life's Choppy Waves Like a Pro // Variant Perception #43
I bought my first stock when I was 13. Well, my Dad he helped me out. He deposited all my Bar Mitzvah gift money into a Scottrade account and told me I could trade whatever I wanted but couldn’t withdraw the money.
You can imagine my face when 13-year-old Jared got that news. I could’ve bought a new Xbox, BMX bike, and anything a young teenager craved. Instead, I received something money could never buy: direction.
His choice sparked an interest that shaped my worldview into what it is today. I got my first job because the bottom of my LinkedIn profile said, “Investing in the stock market since I was 13.” Trading stocks from my phone during class kindled an interest that became a career. Now, 19 years later, I use market frameworks to view the world and my life.
One framework on my mind is the difference between cyclical and secular trends and how people can be poor judges of which is which. I notice (and have personally gotten it wrong so many times) that it’s difficult to separate the two. There’s an inherent allure to viewing cyclical trends as secular and vice versa.
A cyclical trend resolves itself quickly, usually returning to a consistent level.
In financial markets, a cyclical trend would be the price of oil going up for a year or two because of increased demand and then returning to previous levels when supply catches up.
In your personal life, a cyclical trend could look like a month where life feels off. Your work output is down. You’re not feeling as creative or as mentally sharp. Maybe something happened, or you’re feeling burned out. You’re off your trend.
Secular trends are the opposite of cyclical. They’re long-term, little-changing trends that progress onward regardless of outside factors.
Technological innovation is the best current example of a secular trend. The proliferation of the iPhone and the use of Google are two examples over the last twenty years.
A secular trend might be more challenging to identify; however, within these trends is the treasure of your life. Identifying your secular trends allows you to surf above the everyday chop that can bring you down. Those cyclical downturns where it can feel like nothing is working and you’re just treading water.
A consistent trend in my life has been leaning on my curiosity. It’s been an ever-present and motivating force for me to interact with the world. My curiosity leads me to the best, most exciting rabbit holes and outcomes I’ve encountered.
Another secular trend I’ve noticed is that the decisions I’ve made using my intuition have turned out to be the best, most impactful decisions in my life. These decisions usually occur at a crossroads, where I can feel the imbalance of one decision against another. It doesn’t matter how often I try to dissect a problem in my mind; if I don’t trust the feeling in my body, it’s almost impossible to get the decision right.
Understanding our secular trends allows us to navigate the noise and focus on what truly matters. For instance, my secular trends - curiosity and intuition - have guided me toward what’s most meaningful and exciting in my life.
But the challenge lies in identifying these trends amidst the chaos of cyclical events, those temporary ups and downs that could easily throw us off track if we let them. So here's a question: What are your life's secular trends? What consistent driving forces have shaped your decisions that feel like a core part of who you are?
-Jared