3 Major Trends to Define the 2020s

One of my main objectives writing Nexus of Innovation is to share my thoughts on what I expect to happen without layering on my own bias of what I'd prefer to happen.

This takes building a macro view of the world, finding the interlinking pieces, how economics influences government, how technology affects business, and how people affect each other, and building a mental model for how it all interacts. After I build that view, I attempt to strip out my desires for how I wish that world to be and just focus on how it is. 

But, like all good writers, I’m breaking my own rules. Today I'd like to write about something different. I'd like to reveal my own personal biases and thoughts. Hope you enjoy it!

What is my unique lens through which I interpret the world?

I think of myself as a dreamer. I enjoy living in the future and anticipating what's likely to come. I don't have an issue thinking 5, 10, 15, 20 years into the future. That's one reason I'm so fascinated by what's just on the horizon. 

I look ahead and see how the incentives and structures of our society embrace one thing or remove another. This is called a reaction function, and it's most apparent in governments and big institutions who have longer histories. The longer the history something has the more predictable the behavior.

What trends am I following that I expect to develop over the next 10 years?

I'm of the opinion that the 2020s will be a pivotal decade over the next century. We have major global currents of change converging in economics, technology, government, world relations, health, environment, and more.

America is losing its leadership, decisiveness, and exceptionalism in favor of infighting, mediocrity, and equity (I use this word specifically and it’s not a compliment). China is becoming more bold, and, from my perspective, is going to make its move for global hegemony in the next 10 years (probably much sooner and with the invasion of Taiwan).

At its worst, the world splits into a bi-polar world similar to one the USSR and USA created during the cold war. Part of the world remains allied to America and the west and uses dollars and the other part of the world will ally with China and use Yuan. We see proxy wars spring up around the world, economic wars, media and disinformation wars (which is already happening), or, even worse, total war between the US and China.

At its best, America and China decouple. American companies onshore their manufacturing or move it to a less hostile country. China creates a powerful narrative war against America, capitalism, and American interests. America responds with its own narrative war and both sides skip armed conflict. The China-US dynamic is, by and large, the most important and pivotal puzzle piece of the next ten years.

Geopolitical dynamics are not going to stop the rapid pace of technological innovation which is exploding. But with the rapid pace of new invention comes an explosion in the concentration of wealth and winners.

Technology has this nasty habit of making the few incredibly wealthy and not sharing those gains outside its network. I imagine this concentration of wealth will continue to grow, fueled by technology and easy money from the world central banks.

This will force governments to attempt to "balance the scales" as they see it. There are only two methods governments have for this: raise taxes and print money. Both of which they're already doing right now, so it’s a good bet to expect more of this.

The most exciting and world-changing technologies right now are Artificial Intelligence, Gene Editing, Additive Manufacturing, Synthetic Biology, Virtual Reality, and Robotics. And what's more exciting is how single innovations within each of these separate fields has an incredible feedback loop which seeds innovation in another.

And, while all of these technologies are creating prosperity and wealth we'll also see the potential birth of an entirely new financial architecture of the world. There's the crypto-embryo that could become the foundation for an entirely new financial system if it survives this next decade (which I have high confidence it will).

The distributed technology backing up crypto currencies is like the internet in 1995. We are in the beginning stages of the beginning stages of what could happen. I imagine in the next ten years we'll see an entire new financial system built in parallel to our existing system. The new system will be programmatic, ubiquitous, and hidden.

Programmatic meaning that the rules of the system will be secured and controlled by computer code. The users of the system will decide what guiding principles they value most and contribute their value to the network that best aligns with their values (security, decentralization, convenience, etc).

Ubiquitous meaning this new financial system will grow far outside where and how we transfer value today. Value will begin to be transferred at the micro level all around us. At the moment, most value transfer is person to person, person to company, or company to person. We can design entirely new methods of monetizing actions, behaviors, and assets in a programmatic system secured by code.

Hidden meaning I believe that 99% of all of this will not directly interface with you. Just like the internet is built in layers, so will the distributed crypto financial system. We don't need to know what technology allows us to send email to one another. We just send the email. But underneath there are multiple technological protocols that transfer emails across the web. Expect the same to happen with crypto.

Is the world doomed? Are we on the brink of economic collapse? 

There’s so much happening in the world right now, and there’s ten times as many interpretations of that. But, as a hard and fast rule, I put anyone who comes with these opinions, that the economy is on the brink of collapse and we’re going back to the stone ages, through a hard filter of objectivity. 99 times out of 100 these opinions are either backwards looking, cherry-picked, or only half the story. 

The “economy” is not numbers on a spreadsheet or profits in a bank account. It’s the creative expression and effort of billions of people across the world exchanging value with one another. While there are and always will be bumps on the road, the energy of human ingenuity, innovation, and invention is not going anywhere. And that’s the driving force of our economy in action. 

I really enjoyed writing this week’s issue. If you enjoyed it too, let me know in the comments below! There’s much more for me to dive into if there’s interest. 

And, if you have any other topics of interest please share them! I love to know what my readers are curious about.